Don't Be That Guy: Common Pick'em Pitfalls

We've all heard the saying, "the house always wins." While that might be true in casinos, it's a similar concept in pick'em pools. Consistently betting against the odds is a risky strategy.

• Real-World Example: Let's say the Kansas City Chiefs are a 7-point favorite over the Denver Broncos. While it's tempting to pick the underdog for a potential big payout, statistically, the Chiefs are more likely to cover the spread.
• Expert Tip: Pay attention to point spreads. They're a good indicator of how teams are expected to perform.

Hot streaks and cold spells are a natural part of the NFL season. Just because a team is on fire doesn't mean they'll continue to win. Similarly, a team struggling to find wins might be due for a turnaround.

• Real-World Example: The New York Jets might have a surprising hot start to the season. However, if they face a tough schedule, it's important to temper expectations and not blindly pick them to win every game.
• Expert Tip: Look at the entire season, not just the last few games. Consider factors like injuries, matchups, and historical performance.

We all have our favorite teams. But if you want to win your pick'em pool, you need to leave your emotions at the door. Letting bias dictate your picks is a surefire way to sabotage your chances.

• Real-World Example: A diehard Dallas Cowboys fan might be tempted to pick them to win every game, regardless of the opponent. However, this can lead to some costly mistakes.
• Expert Tip: Create a separate account for your picks and avoid looking at the standings until the season is over. This will help you stay objective.

Playing in front of your own fans can give a team a significant boost. While it's not a guaranteed win, it's a factor worth considering.

• Real-World Example: Teams like the Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers have a reputation for being tough to beat at home.
• Expert Tip: Always give the home team a slight edge, especially in close matchups.

Injuries are an inevitable part of football. Losing key players can dramatically impact a team's performance.

• Real-World Example: A quarterback injury can completely change the dynamics of an offense.
• Expert Tip: Stay up-to-date on injury reports and adjust your picks accordingly.

With the abundance of information available, it can be tempting to dive deep into stats and analytics. But sometimes, the simplest approach is the best.

• Real-World Example: Spending hours analyzing advanced metrics might not lead to better picks than simply trusting your gut.
• Expert Tip: Find a balance between analysis and intuition.

The NFL is a dynamic league. Teams change coaches, players, and strategies throughout the season. Failing to adapt to these changes can hurt your picks.

• Real-World Example: A team that struggled on offense in the previous season might have a new offensive coordinator who can turn things around.
• Expert Tip: Stay informed about coaching changes, trades, and other developments that could impact teams' performance.